The STA Blog - Page 5
Media outlets – and not just financial ones – have been getting terribly excited about the share price of US electric vehicle-maker Tesla. Admittedly the firm has stolen a march over its competitors, and Mr Musk has an army of ardent fans who almost believe he’s a visionary who can walk on water. But at the heart of speculation is whether, and how quickly, can his shares hit the $1,000 mark. Price action recently has been almost vertical – with a sharp stumble here and there. Cassandras, predictably, are saying it’ll end in tears.
Robin Griffiths, who has pedigree, overviews the last 50 years: Because the STA also has 50 years under its belt
Well, we’ll have to give it to him, he’s done 53 years as a professional technical analyst/strategist, despite a BA in economics from Nottingham University. His first City job was at stockbrokers Phillips and Drew – one of the many names I remember from long ago – which produced, in Robin’s opinion, some of ‘’probably the best fundamental analysis in London.’’ Well, I bet that’s not what you expected! Exempted from 9 of the 13 actuarial exams required, he tidied up the situation ASAP.
A little social media bird let me in on a surprise. For her interview on IG TV, hosted by Victoria Scholar, veteran technical analyst Patricia Elbaz arrived with a congratulatory card and cake. This is because Victoria had passed her STA Diploma Part I exam with ‘amazing results’. I’m sure all STA members will want to extend their best wishes to all other successful candidates.
Many markets this January have been a ‘Tale of Two Cities’ – or halves anyway. This has created a series of very interesting, and sometimes rare, single or two-candle patterns, reminding me of the song ‘Candle in the Wind’. Like the song’s lyrics, ‘’and it seems to me you lived your life, like a candle in the wind, never knowing who to cling to, when the rain set in’’. My gut instinct is to look carefully and special candles to see if they’ll give you a steer as to which way the wind is blowing.
Earlier this month Tim Harford, a Financial Times (TimHarford@ft.com) writer and author of best-selling books ‘The Undercover Economist’ and ‘Fifty Inventions That Shaped the Modern Economy’ – who I rate highly, published an article about losers – in which category he includes himself. These are people who consistently purchase products which most people don’t want.
Just over a month ago, we wrote that the index of all shares listed on the Growth Enterprise Board, the ChiNext, had broken up out of a small symmetrical triangle, and should rally to retracement resistance at 2155. It’s got there and more, up 7.6 per cent since the beginning of this year, outpacing other Chinese stock indices.
A regular guest on this 10:30 am slot, host Victoria Scholar slickly puts charting veteran Lee through his paces. Interestingly, he kicks off with FX cross the Kiwi (New Zealand dollar, for the uninitiated) against the Canadian dollar. While these ‘commodity’ currencies (plus the Australian dollar) feature regularly on specialists’ radars, I’m wondering whether the average IG spread-betting fan is really that interested.
That’s how Adrian Schmidt said he felt as a fundamental analyst slotted between two technical analysts at yesterday evening’s special panel debate organised at the STA’s usual (and lovely) venue in conjunction with the ACI. To an almost full house – maybe because of the ACI hook-up, maybe because investors make plans in January, maybe because of the calibre of the speakers – the session was riveting.
I’m probably preaching to the converted, but: beware media headlines. Bad news is shocking, and shocking sells newspapers. Sensationalist wording gets eyeballs on social media. Slick and surprising video footage gets clicks; so it goes, and has always; therefore journalists are trained to write exciting copy. In fact, larger media outlets have teams whose sole job is to come up with catchy headlines.
The TV and media team and IG are a slick lot with a busy production schedule. As well as producing text and video content, they coordinate news feeds for the platform and do their own analysis. From Monday to Friday there are 3 TV slots: at 07:30 London time (Pre-European open bulletin); 10:30 Charting the Markets; 16:00 Trading look ahead.
This is not a blog; this is not even an M&S blog: It’s just seasonal greetings masquerading as a blog
I’m really looking forward to taking some time off over the Christmas and New Year’s Eve weeks. I’ve cut these out of my working diary for many years now, mainly because markets are dead – ergo technical analysis pointless – and it suits my employers/editors/powers that be. All well and good, but as a media luvvie I’m expected to file copy to cover these dates so I’ve been working double time this month.
Starting a few minutes late, up at the front of the conference hall at One Moorgate Place, London EC2 R 6EA, was new STA Chairman Tom Hicks who had previous incumbent Axel Rudolph’s big shoes to fill. He was flanked by Committee members Clive Lambert and Richard Adcock, plus Claudia Shaffer taking the minutes. All-round organisational whiz Katie Abberton was there to check memberships, give out red voting cards to those entitled to do so, count the votes ‘for’ – and as usual, there were none against the motions.
The gleaming glass of the South Bank, between Tower and London Bridges: A suitably modern venue for some crusty old fellows
These were not any old fellows, but STA Fellows, I’ll have you know. The second time I’ve been invited, having only been made one of the gang last summer at the City Hall 50th STA birthday bash, the event had been in the planning for months. The Society books the venue and provides bubbly and wine, Fellows foot the food bill.
I hear that IG TV presenter Victoria Scholar found this week’s segment with Rajan Dhall especially helpful – and having just watched it, I can see why. He focuses on 3 popular technical analysis indicators, walking us through, step by step, how to construct and interpret them; very much a ‘teach yourself’ indicators special.
The Weekend FT has a small FT Money section which covers personal finance (rather than companies and markets). It often has articles which are relevant to one’s current or future circumstances, or cover aspects that a friend might find helpful. I was shocked to read on Saturday that Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs had purportedly sent out scamming texts and emails and made phone calls to 900,000 people – who had reported them – over the last year. Sounds to me that there could be an awful lot more.
Recorded and broadcast live on Thursday the 21st November, Victoria Scholar gets Nicole Elliott FSTA to run through the charts and thinking behind that day’s email sent out to Investors Chronicle subscribers. Daily she covers 3 main indices, 2 currencies and spot gold, adding a little bit of market relevant news and published economic data to set the scene.
For a nation which prides itself on prudence, saving and balancing the government budget, they are furious at the ECB’s never-ending ‘quantative easing’ and now a minus 50 basis point key ‘lending’ rate. Data published by the Bundesbank, and a very interesting article in the Financial Times, this week show that of the 220 lenders surveyed at the end of last month (September 2019) 58 per cent of banks were levying negative interest rates on some corporate deposits, and 23 per cent doing the same for retail deposits.
Introducing himself as an Essex boy who speaks very fast – which he does – and someone not used to giving professional lectures, he’s so engaging the talk went swimming along nicely. He started with a slide his compliance department insisted he must include; every salesman’s bane. Then followed a brief outline of his career since 1986, of which Instinet was the longest stint. It took him a little while to truly embrace technical analysis, he says, because he’d heard, ‘’every galleon at the bottom of the ocean has a chart room’’.
Recorded and broadcast live on Friday the 8th November, just ahead of Remembrance Sunday 2019, STA Committee member Eddie Tofpik appropriately decided to do a special educational show on the Andrews pitchfork. Church on Sunday reminded me that Isaiah 2:4 says: ‘’and they shall beat their swords into ploughshares, and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation’’.
‘The Man who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution’: A book review by Robin Wrigglesworth
On reading the Weekend FT last Saturday, I stumbled on a piece entitled ‘Algorithm for our times’ about a man I’d never heard of. It’s the American in the photo, taken in 2011, who looks like a grizzled and possibly grumpy old man (says this grumpy old bag). It’s no wonder I, and no doubt many others, are unfamiliar with his name and face as he shunned publicity. In a rare 2006 interview he says, quoting Orwell’s donkey in ‘Animal Farm’: ‘’God gave me a tail to keep off the flies. But I’d rather have had no tail and no flies’’.
- ‘Applying macro fundamentals to short-term trading’: By Anthony Cheung October 14, 2021
- Energy Trading Week: In conjunction with CommoditiesPeople.com October 7, 2021
- STA Freedom Party: Something to celebrate September 28, 2021
- New Lessons from Brain Science: and how they inform risk taking September 23, 2021
- Market reaction to EU July Industrial Production September 17, 2021
- A fireside chat with author Jack D Schwager: He of Market Wizards fame on
- Market Wizards – and their lesser known cohorts: Jack Schwager hits the book launch circuit on
- Colours, clashes and clichés: How and why use colourful charts on
- Do you know Aroon? I do, but not very well on
- Must read classics: Richard W Schabacker – the real bible of technical analysis on
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