January is a long month: Its tempting to wish it away
Despite New Year festivities in the majority of countries which follow the Gregorian calendar, and Lunar New Year which this year started on 22nd January and causes the biggest annual mass migration (China), plus the easing of travel restrictions as we learn to live with Covid, January can be cruel. In the Northern hemisphere days are short, though lengthening, nasty spells of freezing weather can spring up too, and this year Alpine ski resorts have precious little snow to attract tourists. Not only do we have to endure 31 days of this month, many people are short of cash and wondering whether they’ll get through to the next pay check.
As a technical analysts I’m egging my charts on, hoping they’ll give me a steer as to what I might expect over this quarter or six months. As consensus opinion for this year’s outlook veers unexpectedly, a cool head and cold heart are needed more than ever.
So to the NASDAQ, where yet another mega-tech firm has announced massive job cuts, blaming excessive pandemic-related hiring. Yeah, right. The weekly Ichimoku cloud chart attached to this piece shows all aspects in a clear bear trend, as they have been for most of the last year. Volume was surprisingly strong in December, suggesting many are coming round to this idea – or slashing losing trades. We are now back inside an Andrews pitchfork (drawn from the 2016 lows, illustrating the increased rate of change in 2020/2021), its central tine is providing support. So, currently a holding pattern.
Next I look to the candles to see if they have anything to say for themselves. Precious little, I’m afraid, and I know that I must wait until the close of business Tuesday week for my monthly candles to complete. Friday’s close just above the 9-week moving average is hardly inspiring. Oh dear!
Tags: Andrews Pitchfork, Ichimoku Clouds, moving averages
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