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How the markets worked a long time ago: And how staff dressed for work
Quite by chance, about 10 days ago, someone put me on to a video available (to those who pay a television licence fee) on BBC iPlayer. Called ‘The Markets’, it was released in 1976 and is an interesting vignette of how things used to be in the City of London, and how the plumbing really works. I don’t go back that far, though I did study at the London School of Economics, but many of my work colleagues in the early 1980s were around then and regaled us with tales of the old days – not the ‘good old days’ mind you.
Tags: Banking, Jobber, Stockbroker, volatility
That was the Week that Was: And then the client asks: ’’how are you left?’’
A phrase dreaded by market makers in all areas of finance who, because they are obliged to make two-way prices for existing clients throughout the business day, means there are more difficult orders on the way and the most recent price the client accepted was because it went in their favour. In other words, the dealer’s got stuck with a nasty position and scrambling out of it is about to get even harder.
Tags: Equities, percentage, Relative Performance, Start Point
Book review: ‘Unchartered: How to map the future together’ by Margaret Heffernan, published by Simon & Schuster
The Weekend FT is strong on book reviews, generally well-written, some good, rarely bad, and never indifferent. Mercifully, they cover a lot more than fiction because, as my friend the Supreme Court judge says: ‘’when you have to read a lot for your work, fiction becomes less and less satisfying’’ – as is also my case.
Tags: forecasting, Received Wisdom, Unchartered
When is parabolic too much? Answer: when it suddenly reverses
Media outlets – and not just financial ones – have been getting terribly excited about the share price of US electric vehicle-maker Tesla. Admittedly the firm has stolen a march over its competitors, and Mr Musk has an army of ardent fans who almost believe he’s a visionary who can walk on water. But at the heart of speculation is whether, and how quickly, can his shares hit the $1,000 mark. Price action recently has been almost vertical – with a sharp stumble here and there. Cassandras, predictably, are saying it’ll end in tears.
Tags: Excess, momentum
Robin Griffiths, who has pedigree, overviews the last 50 years: Because the STA also has 50 years under its belt
Well, we’ll have to give it to him, he’s done 53 years as a professional technical analyst/strategist, despite a BA in economics from Nottingham University. His first City job was at stockbrokers Phillips and Drew – one of the many names I remember from long ago – which produced, in Robin’s opinion, some of ‘’probably the best fundamental analysis in London.’’ Well, I bet that’s not what you expected! Exempted from 9 of the 13 actuarial exams required, he tidied up the situation ASAP.
Tags: Asset classes, cycles, demographics
It’s my birthday this month, so I’m looking at monthly candles: Not blowing them out though
Many markets this January have been a ‘Tale of Two Cities’ – or halves anyway. This has created a series of very interesting, and sometimes rare, single or two-candle patterns, reminding me of the song ‘Candle in the Wind’. Like the song’s lyrics, ‘’and it seems to me you lived your life, like a candle in the wind, never knowing who to cling to, when the rain set in’’. My gut instinct is to look carefully and special candles to see if they’ll give you a steer as to which way the wind is blowing.
‘Harbingers of failure’ versus ‘lead customers’: Notes from Tim Harford provoke contrarian thinking
Earlier this month Tim Harford, a Financial Times (TimHarford@ft.com) writer and author of best-selling books ‘The Undercover Economist’ and ‘Fifty Inventions That Shaped the Modern Economy’ – who I rate highly, published an article about losers – in which category he includes himself. These are people who consistently purchase products which most people don’t want.
Tags: Contrarian, divergence, Market Signals, Technical Analysis Courses
ACI “the filling in the sandwich”: The economist between the dark side
That’s how Adrian Schmidt said he felt as a fundamental analyst slotted between two technical analysts at yesterday evening’s special panel debate organised at the STA’s usual (and lovely) venue in conjunction with the ACI. To an almost full house – maybe because of the ACI hook-up, maybe because investors make plans in January, maybe because of the calibre of the speakers – the session was riveting.
Tags: 2020, Fundamentals, FX, G10, panel, Technical Analysis Courses
Tremendous turnout for equities in 2019: Despite Sino-US trade spat
I’m probably preaching to the converted, but: beware media headlines. Bad news is shocking, and shocking sells newspapers. Sensationalist wording gets eyeballs on social media. Slick and surprising video footage gets clicks; so it goes, and has always; therefore journalists are trained to write exciting copy. In fact, larger media outlets have teams whose sole job is to come up with catchy headlines.
Tags: Equities, percentage, Relative Performance, Start Point
Thirty-third STA AGM: Gets into full swing
Starting a few minutes late, up at the front of the conference hall at One Moorgate Place, London EC2 R 6EA, was new STA Chairman Tom Hicks who had previous incumbent Axel Rudolph’s big shoes to fill. He was flanked by Committee members Clive Lambert and Richard Adcock, plus Claudia Shaffer taking the minutes. All-round organisational whiz Katie Abberton was there to check memberships, give out red voting cards to those entitled to do so, count the votes ‘for’ – and as usual, there were none against the motions.
Tags: AGM, Directors, Executive committee, Report & Accounts
The gleaming glass of the South Bank, between Tower and London Bridges: A suitably modern venue for some crusty old fellows
These were not any old fellows, but STA Fellows, I’ll have you know. The second time I’ve been invited, having only been made one of the gang last summer at the City Hall 50th STA birthday bash, the event had been in the planning for months. The Society books the venue and provides bubbly and wine, Fellows foot the food bill.
Tags: Fellows, food, London Bridge
Scam emails from HMRC – Reported by 900,000 people
The Weekend FT has a small FT Money section which covers personal finance (rather than companies and markets). It often has articles which are relevant to one’s current or future circumstances, or cover aspects that a friend might find helpful. I was shocked to read on Saturday that Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs had purportedly sent out scamming texts and emails and made phone calls to 900,000 people – who had reported them – over the last year. Sounds to me that there could be an awful lot more.
German corporates penalised by the ECB: Banks impose negative interest rates on cash balances
For a nation which prides itself on prudence, saving and balancing the government budget, they are furious at the ECB’s never-ending ‘quantative easing’ and now a minus 50 basis point key ‘lending’ rate. Data published by the Bundesbank, and a very interesting article in the Financial Times, this week show that of the 220 lenders surveyed at the end of last month (September 2019) 58 per cent of banks were levying negative interest rates on some corporate deposits, and 23 per cent doing the same for retail deposits.
Tags: bonds, Negative Yields, Zero
Price matters, but Process more so: A lecture by Andy Dodd MSTA of Louis Capital Markets
Introducing himself as an Essex boy who speaks very fast – which he does – and someone not used to giving professional lectures, he’s so engaging the talk went swimming along nicely. He started with a slide his compliance department insisted he must include; every salesman’s bane. Then followed a brief outline of his career since 1986, of which Instinet was the longest stint. It took him a little while to truly embrace technical analysis, he says, because he’d heard, ‘’every galleon at the bottom of the ocean has a chart room’’.
Tags: candles, Closing Levels, Paper Trading, percentages
Charting the Markets with IG TV: Special show on the Andrews pitchfork
Recorded and broadcast live on Friday the 8th November, just ahead of Remembrance Sunday 2019, STA Committee member Eddie Tofpik appropriately decided to do a special educational show on the Andrews pitchfork. Church on Sunday reminded me that Isaiah 2:4 says: ‘’and they shall beat their swords into ploughshares, and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation’’.
Tags: Andrews Pitchfork, FX, Indices, Schiff pitchfork
‘The Man who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution’: A book review by Robin Wrigglesworth
On reading the Weekend FT last Saturday, I stumbled on a piece entitled ‘Algorithm for our times’ about a man I’d never heard of. It’s the American in the photo, taken in 2011, who looks like a grizzled and possibly grumpy old man (says this grumpy old bag). It’s no wonder I, and no doubt many others, are unfamiliar with his name and face as he shunned publicity. In a rare 2006 interview he says, quoting Orwell’s donkey in ‘Animal Farm’: ‘’God gave me a tail to keep off the flies. But I’d rather have had no tail and no flies’’.
Tags: Algorithm, Big Data, Hedge Fund, Quant, Technical Analysis Courses
Momentum, Echo and Predictability: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange (1820-1930): Eye catching, as one doesn’t often see stock charts this old
One of the ‘advantages’ of being a journalist is the vast amounts of unsolicited email I receive. The other is that I spend a lot of time on social media and websites looking for information, finding what’s new, and what […]
‘Market action discounts everything’ says Technical Analysis: But sometimes price charts lie
Before reading on, take a close and careful look at the chart that goes with this piece. I’ve deliberately not told you what the financial instrument is, nor what it’s priced in, or where it’s traded. It looks, for all […]
Tags: gaps, holidays, volume
‘Taking the Floor: Models, Morals and Management in a Wall Street Trading Room’ Presentation by Daniel Beunza (Cass Business School, SRC, LSE), 11/Oct/2019
Coinciding with his book launch – of the same title and published by Princeton University Press – I was invited, as a journalist for the Financial Times in London, to a presentation on the subject by the public relations firm […]
‘Logical Price Action: Utilising Wyckoffian Principles in Modern Times’: Lecture by William Reardon 8 October 2019 18:30 BST
Invited by STA Executive Committee member David Watts to give this talk (who’d heard about him through the www.trade2win.com forum for active traders), I introduced myself and apologised for knowing nothing about his subject. Unfazed, William told me he was […]
Tags: Accumulation, Distribution, Technical Analysis Course, volume, Wyckoff
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