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‘Critical Cycles’: What you need to know and how to take advantage
The rather dry title of this month’s STA webinar presented by Andrew Pancholi who promised us a ‘’40 minute whistle-stop tour of 30 years of work’’. He lived up to his threat and I urge all and sundry to watch this fascinating presentation – regardless if one’s interested in technical analysis, cycles, or financial history.
Tags: cycles, history, timing
‘Pieces of eight’: And the real value of money
You probably remember this expression from the film ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’. This makes sense, because in those days Spanish coins were minted with silver mined in Latin America, based on a system of 8 ‘reales’ – as Brazil’s currency is known today (real). In 1537, after some debasement, Spain introduced the escudo (as Portugal’s currency was later called) gold coin, worth 16 reales. After further debasement, the gold doubloon (from the word double) was introduced and worth 32 reales. I remember trading and charting – on appropriate graph paper – gilts in thirty-seconds – as US Treasury bonds are still priced today.
‘Flash Crash’ in review: Were they looking for just anyone to blame?
Almost exactly 10 years ago – 6 May 2010 at 14:32 US Eastern Time – the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its second worst ever intra-day loss of 998 points – in just 5 minutes; it then took half an hour to get back to where the shambles started. Five years on, in April 2015 at the age of 36, Navinder Singh Sarao was indicted on 22 charges of financial misdemeanours. The authorities realised that market integrity was at stake and so, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Securities Exchange Commission, the FBI and the UK Met’s boys in blue swung into action.
Tags: Flash crash, high speed trading, pattern recognition
The world’s most and least expensive cities: Where is the relative value?
Very recently the 2020 Cost of Living Report was published covering 133 cities around the globe, listing which were the most expensive to live in. Tied in top spot were Singapore, Hong Kong and Osaka, with New York in 4th place and Paris 5th. In case you’re interested, the cheapest was Damascus, Tashkent one place off the bottom, Almaty next, with Buenos Aires and Karachi tied at number 129.
Tags: Drama, Proportion, Size
Art is anything and everywhere: The skill is in the interpretation
Artist and prize-winning potter, Grayson Perry, has been busy during the lock-down. A social butterfly by nature, oft-spotted at Royal Academy parties sporting a little girl Alice in Wonderland look, last night he and his wife hosted an hour-long TV programme on Channel 4 encouraging us to take up portrait painting and drawing. Yes, really, and comedian Joe Lycett (briefly called Hugo Boss) quickly produced a very convincing one of the UK’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty.
Tags: Interpretation, Language, Symbols
Volatile markets can make you sick – literally: John Coates on viruses and volatility
Published on the 10th April 2020 in the Financial Times newspaper, this wasn’t the first time Mr Coates had contributed an article. Acting on a hunch he had had when running a trading desk for Deutsche Bank, he then retrained in neuroscience and physiology at Cambridge University. He wanted to find out whether ‘the rollercoaster of physical sensations a person experiences while immersed in the markets alters their risk-taking’.
Tags: Information, risk appetite, Stress, Technical Analysis Courses, volatility
‘Crush it with Clouds’ by Sankar Sharma MSTA: If only we could do the same with Covid-19
As a handful of countries start lifting corona-virus related restrictions, Britain looks set to enter another 3 weeks of lockdown. Tuesday the 14th April was the second STA Monthly Meeting that was held online due to limits to the size of indoor gatherings. Our guest speaker, Sankar Sharma, was obviously delighted to be invited, saying he was proud to be ‘among the best in the world of technical analysis’.
Tags: Ichimoku Clouds, return, reward, risk, stops
‘Beware the Ides of March’: Remembering to keep a sense of proportion
Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar came to a sticky end on the 15th of March, lending the phrase negative connotations ever since. In fact, an Ide is a very ancient word for certain dates in the calendar, the first full moon of the month (March, in this case). Tonight, the 7th April, we have another full moon, a pink super bright one as the moon’s elliptical orbit around the earth brings it closer to us than usual. It actually looks orange, and the ‘pink’ comes from the phlox that flowers at this time of year.
Tags: Bear, Bull, percentage, Proportion, Technical Analysis Courses
Tuesday’s meetings turned on their heads: But we still get to see them
I’m a regular presence at Tuesday’s monthly meetings of the Society of Technical Analysts at the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales’ lovely premises at One Moorgate Place, City of London. Partly because I so enjoy catching up with members over drinks after the talk, but also because I’m tasked with doing a write-up and blog for those who didn’t make it. The meeting on the 11th March was cancelled – such a pity.
Tags: Backtesting, Habits, Home Study Course, Video, Working from Home
How the markets worked a long time ago: And how staff dressed for work
Quite by chance, about 10 days ago, someone put me on to a video available (to those who pay a television licence fee) on BBC iPlayer. Called ‘The Markets’, it was released in 1976 and is an interesting vignette of how things used to be in the City of London, and how the plumbing really works. I don’t go back that far, though I did study at the London School of Economics, but many of my work colleagues in the early 1980s were around then and regaled us with tales of the old days – not the ‘good old days’ mind you.
Tags: Banking, Jobber, Stockbroker, volatility
Charting the markets with IG TV: Safe havens ahoy! But do you know where they are?
A very brave Joshua Mahoney of the IG platform faces an incredibly tricky time explaining the carnage in all sorts of markets on the morning of Monday 9th March 2020 – plus, trying to forecast the next step. Well done, we say, as this is precisely the time and space when we need clear advice and cool heads.
Tags: Crashing stock indices, gold, oil, Safe-havens
That was the Week that Was: And then the client asks: ’’how are you left?’’
A phrase dreaded by market makers in all areas of finance who, because they are obliged to make two-way prices for existing clients throughout the business day, means there are more difficult orders on the way and the most recent price the client accepted was because it went in their favour. In other words, the dealer’s got stuck with a nasty position and scrambling out of it is about to get even harder.
Tags: Equities, percentage, Relative Performance, Start Point
Book review: ‘Unchartered: How to map the future together’ by Margaret Heffernan, published by Simon & Schuster
The Weekend FT is strong on book reviews, generally well-written, some good, rarely bad, and never indifferent. Mercifully, they cover a lot more than fiction because, as my friend the Supreme Court judge says: ‘’when you have to read a lot for your work, fiction becomes less and less satisfying’’ – as is also my case.
Tags: forecasting, Received Wisdom, Unchartered
When is parabolic too much? Answer: when it suddenly reverses
Media outlets – and not just financial ones – have been getting terribly excited about the share price of US electric vehicle-maker Tesla. Admittedly the firm has stolen a march over its competitors, and Mr Musk has an army of ardent fans who almost believe he’s a visionary who can walk on water. But at the heart of speculation is whether, and how quickly, can his shares hit the $1,000 mark. Price action recently has been almost vertical – with a sharp stumble here and there. Cassandras, predictably, are saying it’ll end in tears.
Tags: Excess, momentum
Robin Griffiths, who has pedigree, overviews the last 50 years: Because the STA also has 50 years under its belt
Well, we’ll have to give it to him, he’s done 53 years as a professional technical analyst/strategist, despite a BA in economics from Nottingham University. His first City job was at stockbrokers Phillips and Drew – one of the many names I remember from long ago – which produced, in Robin’s opinion, some of ‘’probably the best fundamental analysis in London.’’ Well, I bet that’s not what you expected! Exempted from 9 of the 13 actuarial exams required, he tidied up the situation ASAP.
Tags: Asset classes, cycles, demographics
It’s my birthday this month, so I’m looking at monthly candles: Not blowing them out though
Many markets this January have been a ‘Tale of Two Cities’ – or halves anyway. This has created a series of very interesting, and sometimes rare, single or two-candle patterns, reminding me of the song ‘Candle in the Wind’. Like the song’s lyrics, ‘’and it seems to me you lived your life, like a candle in the wind, never knowing who to cling to, when the rain set in’’. My gut instinct is to look carefully and special candles to see if they’ll give you a steer as to which way the wind is blowing.
‘Harbingers of failure’ versus ‘lead customers’: Notes from Tim Harford provoke contrarian thinking
Earlier this month Tim Harford, a Financial Times (TimHarford@ft.com) writer and author of best-selling books ‘The Undercover Economist’ and ‘Fifty Inventions That Shaped the Modern Economy’ – who I rate highly, published an article about losers – in which category he includes himself. These are people who consistently purchase products which most people don’t want.
Tags: Contrarian, divergence, Market Signals, Technical Analysis Courses
Tremendous turnout for equities in 2019: Despite Sino-US trade spat
I’m probably preaching to the converted, but: beware media headlines. Bad news is shocking, and shocking sells newspapers. Sensationalist wording gets eyeballs on social media. Slick and surprising video footage gets clicks; so it goes, and has always; therefore journalists are trained to write exciting copy. In fact, larger media outlets have teams whose sole job is to come up with catchy headlines.
Tags: Equities, percentage, Relative Performance, Start Point
Charting the Markets on IG TV: With IG’s Senior Market Analyst Joshua Mahony
The TV and media team and IG are a slick lot with a busy production schedule. As well as producing text and video content, they coordinate news feeds for the platform and do their own analysis. From Monday to Friday there are 3 TV slots: at 07:30 London time (Pre-European open bulletin); 10:30 Charting the Markets; 16:00 Trading look ahead.
This is not a blog; this is not even an M&S blog: It’s just seasonal greetings masquerading as a blog
I’m really looking forward to taking some time off over the Christmas and New Year’s Eve weeks. I’ve cut these out of my working diary for many years now, mainly because markets are dead – ergo technical analysis pointless – and it suits my employers/editors/powers that be. All well and good, but as a media luvvie I’m expected to file copy to cover these dates so I’ve been working double time this month.
Tags: greetings, New Year, seasons, year-end
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