Market fragility: Are equity markets due a reaction?
This week a familiar face at STA monthly meetings, Ron William, sent me a piece he had co-authored with Robin Griffiths FSTA. I’m sure they’ll be at our Christmas party on Tuesday 12th December so, if you have any questions or disagree with their view or methods, you can take it up with them then. (I do hope they read this blog and come forewarned.)
Written for Halkin Services, an international risk analysis and asset allocation firm, it looks to be the first in a series called ‘Trends, Timing & Tactics’ or T to the power of three for short. Their focus is the US S&P 500 index and two separate equity charts: those of Facebook and IBM; Tech school versus old school perhaps?
They find that the S&P 500 is increasingly fragile as it hits an 8-year trend resistance and is historically overbought. Downside risk levels can be found 2440-50, which is where the 200-day moving average lies. Their prediction is that there should be a three-wave fall into the new year, as per cycle studies. The fall should reverse all of 2017’s gains.
Click here to read the full report.
Tags: cycles, Elliott Wave, Gann
The views and opinions expressed on the STA’s blog do not necessarily represent those of the Society of Technical Analysts (the “STA”), or of any officer, director or member of the STA. The STA makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information on the blog or found by following any link on blog, and none of the STA, STA Administrative Services or any current or past executive board members are liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. None of the information on the STA’s blog constitutes investment advice.
- ‘New Thought on Market Profile’: Trading the Flow of Control May 12, 2021
- ‘How to Plan for an Emergency’: A webinar, part of Financial Literacy Month May 7, 2021
- Markets, motion and moving averages: Alternative options for a perennial favourite April 21, 2021
- ‘Long Term Forecasting using Interdisciplinary Price Analysis (IPA)’: A presentation by Tom Bundgaard of Kairos Commodities April 15, 2021
- Hello darkness my old friend: I’ve come to talk with you again… April 9, 2021
- A fireside chat with author Jack D Schwager: He of Market Wizards fame on
- Market Wizards – and their lesser known cohorts: Jack Schwager hits the book launch circuit on
- Colours, clashes and clichés: How and why use colourful charts on
- Do you know Aroon? I do, but not very well on
- Must read classics: Richard W Schabacker – the real bible of technical analysis on