STA Blog

Peak – AOD Fall Intervals as an indicator of US Stock Market Corrections

In our Spring 2017 Market Technician journal, David McMinn did an article predicting we were due a sell-off in the stock market in December 2017.

The actual event arrived later than expected in early February 2018 with two one day falls over -4.00% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). At the time, the slump was only expected to be a temporary correction based on historical precedent. All major annual one day (AOD) falls (≥ -4.00%) that that occurred shortly after a record high, happened in a brief correction. This trend has persisted over the past 120 years and was first proposed by McMinn (1997). In contrast, large AOD falls taking place well after a record peak, usually indicated the beginning of a bear market. Both trends were very consistent throughout DJIA history.

David McMinn has written an addendum to his original article. To read, please click here.


Posted in General

The views and opinions expressed on the STA’s blog do not necessarily represent those of the Society of Technical Analysts (the “STA”), or of any officer, director or member of the STA. The STA makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information on the blog or found by following any link on blog, and none of the STA, STA Administrative Services or any current or past executive board members are liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. None of the information on the STA’s blog constitutes investment advice.

Not ready to join? Stay Updated

If you want to learn more about membership and being part of the STA, sign up for our updates so we can keep in touch.


Monthly Meetings

The STA holds 11 monthly meetings in the City of London, including a summer and Christmas party where canapés and refreshments are served.


Latest Videos

As a service to our members, many of whom are unable to attend all our monthly meetings, we have been making videos of meeting presentations for several years.


STA Libraries

The STA has an extensive library of classic technical analysis texts. There are over 1000 books in the collection. It is held at the Barbican Library with a smaller...


Market Technician

Latest research and news

More Info

World Class Tutors

STA Course Lecturers

More Info


Be part of something special

More Info


View latest posts

More Info