Panel Review for the Second Half: Speakers’ brevity and honesty at the fore
Exactly six months ago our trusty panel of speakers presented their outlook for key areas of financial markets for the calendar year 2023. They bravely decided to reconvene yesterday (11th July), the STA with a technical analysis-based view, The Broker Club with a fundamental view focusing on foreign exchange, and ACI UK leaning towards technicals with a solid grasp of market moving data. The chaps had previously described themselves as a sandwich, with the filling being the fundamentals.
The debate, ably moderated once again by Gavin Wells, kept strictly to time, allowing for questions afterwards. It was held under Chatham House rules, meaning none of us can discuss what specific speakers had to say. Gavin’s summary of the key views and outlooks was most helpful.
First off Tom Pelc, CIO of Fortu Wealth which has a keen interest in the gold market. Adding to the theme of continuity he kicks off with a complex, long term spreadsheet of key events based on the theories of W. D. Gann, the same one he had used on January 11th 2023.
Then Shreyas Gopal of Deutsche Bank, a last minute substitution for Robin Winkler of the same FX team. Focusing on G10 currencies, he noted that observed volatility this year was exceptionally low. A gutsy young man, he assessed his boss’s performance so far this year.
Last up Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, a well-known face and voice in financial media. He marked his own homework, pointing out his hits and misses. He stressed the importance of the so-called ‘terminal-rate’ – one at which central banks might change their tune.
Rounding off the presentation was Katharine Leaman on behalf of ACI UK. Thanking the STA for putting on the event, she emphasised the ‘special relationship’ where members of societies have the opportunity to take part in events held by other organisations, something that adds value to membership. Cleverly she claims to have forgotten her stack of notes – so that we can all repair immediately to the drinks on offer next door!
Tags: Forecasting; debate; outlook; FX
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