STA Blog

It was a full house at the STA monthly meeting as finance professionals gathered for a truly insightful evening featuring renowned market experts Robin Griffiths and Ron William.

The evening started with STA Chair Eddie Tofpik and CISI’s Executive Director Membership, Kevin Moore, renewing our Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment, continuing a long-standing collaboration focused on a shared passion for professional education and the capital markets. We’re looking forward to more insightful events & finding other ways to collaborate for the benefit of our members!

Robin then took the floor to give a global perspective on market cycles.

Key themes covered were:

Long-Term Market Trends: Robin provided historical context, illustrating how past cycles can inform future projections.

Technical Strategy Integration: Ron highlighted how aligning technical indicators with broader cycles can sharpen entry and exit decisions.

Real-World Applications: One of the most engaging parts of the evening was when Ron William and Robin Griffiths turned theory into action, walking the audience through real-life examples of how their roadmap cycle model plays out in equities, commodities, and currencies. These case studies served as practical illustrations of how the model can be applied across different asset classes.

Equities: The Rotation from Growth to Value. Ron and Robin began with a deep dive into equity markets, highlighting a structural shift from high-growth tech stocks to more defensive, value-oriented sectors. Using their cycle analysis, they identified how the market had reached a late-stage expansion phase—often characterized by increased volatility and a rebalancing of risk. The model had previously flagged a deceleration in tech momentum while pointing toward opportunities in energy and industrial sectors. Charts supported this with trendlines showing relative strength rotation.

Commodities: Energy and Gold in Focus: In the commodities space, the speakers spotlighted the ongoing Supercycle in energy and the resurgence of precious metals.
Energy: The model predicted strong demand-supply imbalances well before they hit headlines. Robin emphasised the importance of geopolitical overlay, noting how tensions and policy changes further amplified energy price movements. Gold: Seen as a defensive hedge in times of macro uncertainty, gold’s cyclical lows were clearly captured by the model. A significant breakout above resistance levels aligned with global macro stress points—highlighting a textbook application of the cycle framework.

Currencies: Dollar Dominance and Turning Points: Perhaps most compelling was the discussion around currency markets, particularly the US dollar’s dominance and eventual signs of reversal.
Dollar Cycle: Ron explained how the dollar moves in long cycles, often tied to monetary policy, relative growth rates, and global risk sentiment. The model had successfully indicated periods of strength (e.g., during flight-to-safety episodes), followed by a weakening trend as global risk appetite returned. Emerging Market Currencies: As the dollar peaked, the model suggested an upcoming window of opportunity in selected EM currencies, supported by improving fundamentals and technical setups.

Whether you’re a market veteran or an aspiring analyst, this session was a reminder of the importance of stepping back and viewing the bigger picture. In a world of daily market noise, the Global Roadmap Cycle Model offers a compass for navigating uncertainty.