STA Blog

IG TV host Jeremy Naylor this week invited in one of their clients, Adrian Rye, an independent technical analyst. Trained as a commercial financial analyst, he comes across well: honest, believable and clear.

Better and better: his charts are superb. If I’ve read the fine-print correctly, they are from IT-Finance.com, but the stand-out is his superb labelling of waves and intermediate ones, interspersed with event points and classic chart patterns. He starts off with a chart of the S&P 500 from 1982 through to today. He points out that he uses Elliott Wave counts as a roadmap and says, ‘’it isn’t really mathematical, it’s intuitive’’. He believes we may have reached, or are close to, a high 5 of a bigger 5, and that a drop to the 50 or 61.8 retracement support levels is possible.

Reminding that ‘’the hard part is at the beginning of a move’’, he switches to a chart of silver. Major support at the Fibonacci 76.4 and 78.6 per cent retracement levels has held for months, heralding the start of a new trend to higher prices. A pity he says his target could be 2000; he should have said $20 per ounce.

He then moves on to gold, suggesting all and sundry are looking at precious metals at the moment; always a slightly worrying sign, especially for contrarian like me. He sees that a very long term inverted head & shoulders base has formed, and that its neckline was broken this summer. A pullback to this line – about $1350 – is likely and would be a good buying opportunity – prior to new higher highs. Wishful thinking, perhaps?

Click here to view.