John’s talk will focus on the current developments in emerging markets, which are providing plenty of textbook patterns. For those not following these markets closely, it is worth bearing in mind that they should not be considered as an homogeneous bloc, but are in different stages of development, and can show widely differing characteristics, the recent, fairly indiscriminate sell-off notwithstanding. As part of his theme, John will consider to what extent the old jibe is still true, “Emerging markets are those from which it is difficult to emerge!”

Most members will be familiar with the “Road Map”, his proprietary system for codifying the interaction between the various market and economic cycles. As a seasoned sailor, he is more qualified than most to stipulate, “Always look at the chart”. Whilst the Society has always adopted a purist attitude to performance claims in notices, his Road Map should be a much more reliable indicator of present position, direction and route in markets than some of the SatNav systems now on offer, judging by recent press comments!

Tim actively trades his own funds across equities, fixed income, commodities & foreign exchange. Building on the disciplines imparted by the classics, he uses only technical analysis, with a variety of methods. He will focus on his use of various DeMark Indicators: TD Setup, Sequential, Combo, Moving Average 1, and how he combines these indicators. He aims to provide examples from a range of markets.

Prior to joining HSBC in 1998, Charles was in the Army, which instilled many of the essential disciplines for successful and consistent fund management. Although Technical Analysis is normally associated with market timing and trading, in order to make it more relevant within fund management, the objectives need to be altered. Stock selection and asset allocation are more important than market timing, and Charles will argue that, contrary to popular belief, technical analysis serves the former better than the latter.

Obviously, the generation of returns above the index is needed to justify an active fund manager’s existence, and a technical fund cannot live in isolation from this fact, and hide behind absolute return or trading. Charles will discuss the investment process behind the HSBC Global Trend Fund, with insights into currency-adjusted price relative (CAPR), trend following, contrarian investing, asset allocation and risk management.

Tom leads a team of analysts in London and New York, and is responsible for the production of daily Technical Watch publications. Through the use of technical analysis and global spread relationships the Technical Watch publications present daily directional evaluations of Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, and Equity futures and cash markets. Weekly technical publications include coverage of Asian capital markets, European Rates Weekly and the Global Futures & Options editions.

He aims to examine 2006 as a transition year for global fixed income markets that have been dominated by the bullish lower yield movement since 2000. Using correlation work, the 2000/2003 cyclical fixed income bull trends were primarily the products of the most severe equity setbacks since the early 1930’s. Higher yield corrections began in 2003, and the relationship between the current equity cycle and fixed income should decline by late 2006 early 2007.

Secular Exhaustion: Driven since 1981 in the US and early 1990’s in Europe, the consistent progress towards lower yields is reaching exhaustion. This has enormous consequences for yields over the next 2-10 years.

Mark will be talking about how the STA Diploma course – especially moving averages, sector and equity price/relative chart analysis – has helped his career progression, which is now geared toward the more dynamic hedge fund world. He will explain how he finds and trades high probability trades with high win/loss ratios, by using relative value in conjunction with technical analysis. Mark will give numerous examples of some of his recent trades and explain why it makes sense to focus on those sectors and stocks which are out- or underperforming the market.

Implied volatility and put-call ratios are the only exact measure for sentiment that everyone can access. Making simple assumptions on how market-makers and the crowd (retail and institutional) behave, it is possible to derive from implied volatility an excellent gauge of fear and greed. Combined with price analysis, it increases the probability of spotting medium term trend reversals. It also appears that implied volatility obeys Dow theory, and can be analyzed as an asset of its own, therefore calling for trend reversals in volatility.

Valérie will provide recent examples and will share her experience of the methodology’s strengths and weaknesses.

Bill will not discuss the minutiae of TA very much, but, in his allotted span of 30 minutes, share some insights into his long and colourful career as a trader, broker and market journalist, aka market wisdom.

David will discuss his approach to analysing markets, with a particular focus on the application of Fibonacci. He will also look at the current outlook for global fixed income markets.

Kevin will discuss the use of volatility bands as an adaptive tool to gauge the phase of the market. He will then outline a way to adjust oscillators using volatility, to enhance trading performance. Using these measures, he will conclude by focusing on some current observations.

Tom will examine the market climate, and use technical analysis to discuss technical scenarios, by way of demonstrating the “rule of confirmation”. He will look at cross markets to formulate trading strategy. For example, looking at the UK interest rate cycle, and how that impacts on the yield curve and resulting fly trading activity. Tom will show how he uses various chart types – candles, bar & line – to confirm signals. He also looks at calendar and yield spread differentials, and in some instances applies objective tools like moving averages and m/a systems, as well as momentum tools.

Jeff will adapt his normal monthly review to cover such international markets, sectors, bonds, commodities and currencies as can be shown within his allotted span of 30 minutes. He will focus mainly on what is hot, and to a lesser extent on what is not.

David will focus on the latest findings on Ichimoku (Cloud) Charts, which were developed in Japan in the late 1960s, making them one of the most recent developments in Technical Analysis. Although there is still remarkably little written material available on the subject, the technique is becoming more widely followed in western markets. The Ichimoku session was one of the best acclaimed presentations at the Madrid IFTA Conference. David’s presentation follows on from that with the latest findings and observations.

David will focus on his theories regarding the behavioural patterns of markets, their underlying psychological associations and the harnessing of internal feelings as one trades the market patterns. He will use recent examples to illustrate his thoughts, and make several key market predictions. He aims to cover as wide a range of markets as possible, including gold, oil, the dollar and US equities.

Bill will take as his starting point his recent lecture for the Diploma Course and develop the rather neglected theme of Dow Theory as far his allotted span permits.