The predominant market activity is one of range trading; most asset classes trend far less than is commonly perceived. The correct selection of technical indicators will depend on identifying the phase of the market. Kevin will discuss how emotional biases drive price action and can prompt trends to extend beyond the bounds of a normal Gaussian curve into the “fat tails” of the distribution. He has been a user of technical analysis throughout his career and after witnessing behavioural biases first hand in the open outcry-markets now uses trend strength and momentum techniques to disqualify “noise” trading and quantify the intensity of directional moves.

Julien will start his talk by explaining how he approaches technical analysis and which tools he uses. He will then go on to show his audience how to apply these different tools and how to incorporate them into asset management and trading. Special attention will be placed upon medium-term cycles and how to use these in short-term strategies. Julien will also explain his current forecasts on financial markets in general.

His talk will consist of a broad ranging treatise on the philosophy of technical analysis, in particular an examination of the tension between art and science inherent in the discipline. It is not meant to be authoritative in academic terms, but rather will be an attempt to apply the experience of 20 years as a commercial agent in technical analysis to the broader concepts which so many practitioners take for granted. He will touch on technical patterns and pattern recognition, psychology and behavioural, economics, art and science.

This talk will look at DeMark’s Oscillators – in particular the TD Demarker and Range Expansion Index. Tom is best known for his market exhaustion techniques, TD Sequential and TD Combo, but much of his other work is underappreciated. This talk will look at these excellent and innovative technical indicators and especially at how to use them in practice.

Brian will cover the properties of mathematical sine waves and the effect of various moving averages on these. He will then highlight the difficulties caused by the variations in amplitude, wavelength and phase of the cycles present in market data. However, techniques will be described which will find the small number (10%) of securities (or indices, forex) whose cycles are currently passing through a period of stability. These stable cycles can be isolated and categorised into short, medium and long term wavelengths. The summation of the stable cycles in each category gives a very accurate prediction of trends into the near future.

Several cycles reached critical points in May 2000. These cycles continue to resonate. Christeen’s presentation will look closely at these unfolding cycles and suggest periods of extraordinary activity in 2009. Cycles to be considered include the Saturn-Pluto cycle and recession, the Jupiter- Neptune cycle: inflation and oil prices and Pluto’s recent Capricorn ingress, and what this might mean for the banking industry and mortgage markets in the UK and US. Although these outer planet movements are slow, their effect is triggered by the patterns created with the so-called “inner” planets, Mercury and Venus. Christeen will also cover the effect of these planet cycles on gold and sterling. The conclusion will focus on the opening months of 2010, and the real credit bubble burst, indicated by the extraordinary planet formations of that period.

Marc’s book on swing trading is devoted mainly to the use of point & figure charts and swing charts. Marc has introduced a subset of rules which make pioneering alterations to the swing charts proposed by WD Gann. The modifications are intended to improve risk/reward for traders and investors but also to make trend definition more accurate.

In this talk Marc examines how swing charts have stood the test of time since his last talk to the Society in May 2004.

Julian will outline some of the methods he uses to trade and how he applies technical analysis across a range of markets and timeframes. He will illustrate how he identifies the “price acceleration” trades which make the easiest positive returns. He will also discuss the more aggressive approach that comes from managing a leveraged trading portfolio and the emphasis that is placed on money management.

In his talk Adam will look back at the history of development of technical analysis in the UK. He will also highlight the extent to which technology has changed the industry and reflect on his experience of the use of TA in the hedge fund industry.

Jeremy will give a quick refresher on Point and Figure charts and then discuss how they can be used objectively and effectively. He will also discuss how computers have allowed new and sophisticated techniques to be added to Point and Figure analysis.

Financial market cycles need to be seen in the context of the long-term economic cycles of which they are a part. However, the relationships are not deterministic: all markets have their own individual patterns and rhythms, and multi-dimensional feedback processes are involved. So, although the current credit crunch has arrived ‘on time’, it is unlikely to have the results that many now fear. Indeed, the emergent patterns are more consistent with a new wave of secular inflation than with an imminent deflation.

The Elliott Wave theory can be described as an empirically derived, entirely technical, list of rules and guidelines, to interpret, qualify, and project activity in financial markets. The theory, defining a complete bull and bear cycle as five waves up and three waves down, is highly indicative of mass psychology and human progression, and allows therefore exciting insights of what the market might do next. But as the theory can be quite complex and confusing, it requires the engagement of Fibonacci applications and what Thomas calls “plausibility analysis” to make it a powerful and highly effective analysis tool. The insights that Thomas will give will hopefully dissolve most difficulties that people encounter using this technique and will unveil the logical clarity behind it.

Ian and Chris will between them cover the relative prospects of gilt edged and other fixed interest markets, and will explain the main methods of analysis, principally on trends and cycles. With the continuing travails of credit markets, and the spill-over into corporate bonds, this is all too topical, even to those whose focus is elsewhere! Coverage of the wider picture will even include gold.

Living in a fast paced world filled with a myriad of investment opportunities buried beneath a sea of market noise, news, data and other perilous distractions, getting to the pearls can be a real challenge. Relying on your brain to digest and process large amounts of information in a limited amount of time comes at its own perils, owing to cognitive impediments that make us vulnerable to information overload.

Revealing some of the biases exhibited by investors, Rashpal will explain the benefits of simple quantitative techniques in arriving at the answer, and go as far as revealing one simple, backtested system that is born out of the concept of trends.