STA Monthly Meeting – October 2010
Mr Meisels will be talking about the 40-year cycle. According to him since 1789 the US equity market has experienced six secular cycles. They consist of a secular bull and a secular bear phase and last approximately 40 years. The secular bull consists of numerous (± 4 year) Dunbar Cycles which usually have progressively higher highs and higher lows. The secular bear consists of two Dunbar Cycles, where the second is rarely higher than the first, and where one of the bear phases is significantly worse than the other.
Elliott Wave Theory forces each secular cycle into a larger entity (Supercycle, Grand Supercycle, etc.) whereas one, according to Ron, should look at each separately. Once the two bear markets within the secular bear are completed (most recently in March 2009), the secular bear is over, and a new secular cycle begins. Therefore, there is no reason to maintain that we are still in a secular bear market.
Ron Meisels is the developer of the “Meisels Index”, an overbought/oversold indicator based on daily closings prices. He is a highly respected technical analyst with over 40 years of stock market experience and the founder and president of Phases & Cycles Inc.
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STA Monthly Meeting – October 2023
The main reason for ineffective strategy construction which leads to non-reproducible results in real time and hence inconsistent performance is due to not knowing the 3 critical strategy stats. To overcome this challenge and construct sustainable, scalable and reproducible strategies in a quantitative manner, the Smart Money Framework was developed by the quants in the 1960s. With this framework we will have the 3 critical stats to help us construct optimal entries, stop loss and exits. When this is further combined with volume, our probability of capturing the bigger runners increases. All of the above will be explained further in detail by the presenter.
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