STA Monthly Meeting March 2006
Tom leads a team of analysts in London and New York, and is responsible for the production of daily Technical Watch publications. Through the use of technical analysis and global spread relationships the Technical Watch publications present daily directional evaluations of Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, and Equity futures and cash markets. Weekly technical publications include coverage of Asian capital markets, European Rates Weekly and the Global Futures & Options editions.
He aims to examine 2006 as a transition year for global fixed income markets that have been dominated by the bullish lower yield movement since 2000. Using correlation work, the 2000/2003 cyclical fixed income bull trends were primarily the products of the most severe equity setbacks since the early 1930’s. Higher yield corrections began in 2003, and the relationship between the current equity cycle and fixed income should decline by late 2006 early 2007.
Secular Exhaustion: Driven since 1981 in the US and early 1990’s in Europe, the consistent progress towards lower yields is reaching exhaustion. This has enormous consequences for yields over the next 2-10 years.
Tom Hobson has a wide remit at Merrill Lynch, including overseeing and coordinating EMEA rates publications and strategy recommendations, as well as the team responsible for the daily “Technical Watch” circulars.
Next STA Meeting
STA Monthly Meeting – October 2023
The main reason for ineffective strategy construction which leads to non-reproducible results in real time and hence inconsistent performance is due to not knowing the 3 critical strategy stats. To overcome this challenge and construct sustainable, scalable and reproducible strategies in a quantitative manner, the Smart Money Framework was developed by the quants in the 1960s. With this framework we will have the 3 critical stats to help us construct optimal entries, stop loss and exits. When this is further combined with volume, our probability of capturing the bigger runners increases. All of the above will be explained further in detail by the presenter.
Future STA Meetings
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