STA Monthly Meeting March 2006

Wednesday 15th March 2006
Technical Analysis of Interest Rates and Yield Curves

Tom leads a team of analysts in London and New York, and is responsible for the production of daily Technical Watch publications. Through the use of technical analysis and global spread relationships the Technical Watch publications present daily directional evaluations of Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, and Equity futures and cash markets. Weekly technical publications include coverage of Asian capital markets, European Rates Weekly and the Global Futures & Options editions.

He aims to examine 2006 as a transition year for global fixed income markets that have been dominated by the bullish lower yield movement since 2000. Using correlation work, the 2000/2003 cyclical fixed income bull trends were primarily the products of the most severe equity setbacks since the early 1930’s. Higher yield corrections began in 2003, and the relationship between the current equity cycle and fixed income should decline by late 2006 early 2007.

Secular Exhaustion: Driven since 1981 in the US and early 1990’s in Europe, the consistent progress towards lower yields is reaching exhaustion. This has enormous consequences for yields over the next 2-10 years.

Tom Hobson, Managing Director Chief & Global Technical Analyst, Merrill Lynch

Tom Hobson has a wide remit at Merrill Lynch, including overseeing and coordinating EMEA rates publications and strategy recommendations, as well as the team responsible for the daily “Technical Watch” circulars.

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