Implied volatility and put-call ratios are the only exact measure for sentiment that everyone can access. Making simple assumptions on how market-makers and the crowd (retail and institutional) behave, it is possible to derive from implied volatility an excellent gauge of fear and greed. Combined with price analysis, it increases the probability of spotting medium term trend reversals. It also appears that implied volatility obeys Dow theory, and can be analyzed as an asset of its own, therefore calling for trend reversals in volatility.

Valérie will provide recent examples and will share her experience of the methodology’s strengths and weaknesses.